Corporation for Public Broadcasti by contributions to your PBS station from viewers like you thank [Music] you good evening and welcome to live special coverage of the 2024 Iowa caucuses former president Donald Trump has won a decisive victory and what i the first official contest of the to determine the Republican nominee fo president looking at the results in so far he is claiming 51% of the vote and the story tonight is Donald Trump's absolute dominance over his to Rivals he's claiming 51% to Ronda sanz's 21.3% to Nikki Haley's 19% omna this is the biggest victory of any competitive caucus in US history a record night for a number of reasons we are joined here in Studio by our panel for full analysis that is New York Times columnist David Brooks Jonathan Kart associate editor for the Washington Post Amy Walter of the cook political Report with Amy Walter and Republican strategist Kev Madden who advised Mitt Romney's presidential campaign of course our ve own Lisa de jardan has been in Iowa reporting she is at Ronda sanz's caucus night watch party now Lisa this was not the result that the the santis campaign wanted to see a clear decisive and earl win for former president Donald Trump just tell us what folks there in the room are are telling you and this news you know well I can tell you omna that there's not quite yet anyone saying they're disappoi supporters of Ronda santis in this room look like they would like a different outcome clearly uh now there are folks coming into this who said if Ronda santz could end the night in the 20% uh that that is something that could help him continue on this campaign so we're watching those numbers closely everyone here is watching th closely second and third the th ere may matter very much to this campaign in particular which gave spent it all had more staff in this state than any other campaign he bet everything he had on Iowa Dan santis did so the outcome here second versus third really could matter in terms of him staying in this race for how long what kind of future trajectory he has if he can gain against former president Trump in the future but the big topic of conversation here tonight is that call by the Associated Press that happened even as I was reporting to you before many caucus goers had begun to vote I spoke to some DeSantis supporters in the caucus site that I was at uh who said they saw that former president Trump had been declared the winner before they had voted that they were not only frustrated by that but they felt that their vote had been discounted that their vote was worthless even before they counted counted it and here at D santis headquarters they're echoing what d santis himself sent ou outrage over what they see uh is interference in the voting they really believe that perhaps that call affected how people voted now the caucus side I was at I didn't have anyone say that that was the case there was enormous frustration and I think this is something we will hear uh Go vernor Dan santis himself about later Leisa a quick question we should say we have a bit of a delay in o to you Governor DeSantis his ar e saying that he is in this race for what they say is the Long Hall does h have won the campaign infrastructure or two the money to do that to really mount a competitive race in New Hampshire South Carolina and Beyond Rhonda Sanz has tried an experiment in politics he has bifurcated the way he's done his campaign he has a campaign team that in many ways is smaller than actually the Super PAC never backed down which is an independent Super PAC it is not supposed to consult with the campaign however Governor d santis himself does events with the Super PAC so that Super PAC has more staff has more money and they say that they do have the muscle to continue on Dan santz himself is planning two events tomorrow with that super going to two different states South Carolina first and then New Hampsh that's a signal he put out that event schedule yesterday saying no ha ppens in Iowa I will continue to those next two key States but I think you're asking the right questions what will this mean for fundraising we've Ni kki Haley's fundraising in th quarter really pick up I believe something to tune of $24 million so Ronda Sanchez can he keep bringing in the money to keep going uh I think what he says tonight the ending numbers tonight all of that will matter that i Lisa de jardan at the Dan santis headquarters in West de Mo tonight let's turn to our panel here in the if the Iowa caucuses provide the first test of just How firm Donald Trump's front runner status is and whether anyone not named Donald Trump can provide can be an actual viable alternative what do these results tell us yeah it tells us that that's going to be very very hard to do to knock him out of the top spot and yo know for disantis this is just a deeply disappointing night I don't really understand where he goes from he honestly it wasn't just that his eggs in the Iowa basket it's that his entire campaign was premised on this concept that he could run to the right of Donald Trump and that he could win over some Trump voters who cons are conservative who are Evangelical but who've soured on the president since 2020 looking at these uh AP voter surveys uh vote vote cast surveys Evangelical voters Trump won them with 58% Dan santis only getting 18% um among uh very conservative 62% Trump to just 22% DeSantis so as we move forward this is the electorate white Evangelical and conservative voters desantis's pathway is obviously it's not just narrow it's like the tiniest of slivers Jonathan David let's get your reaction to to both the early call we had here with uh former president Trump winning Iowa but also the margin by which he did and some of the slices of the electorate that we know turned out for him what do you feel I mi stake I mean there's no end like don't close in so there's no clear end time so they picked the start time but it was clearly a mistake I mean people who feel that the count I'm not sure about that disheartening when you're just sitting there and they'v that's you k reaction I actually Trump is obviously the big winner and Des santis is obviousl Nikki haly's a bit of a loser more than a little bit of a loser sh she had won like 25 came in a strong second we'd all be saying oh she still has some momentum and then she goes t New Hampshire suddenly she Chris christe's gone suddenly momentum she can do Hampshire and then you Sprint on to Michigan but she really can't claim much of a big win Se cond Place basically or third place or tied for second it's like you know splitting a double header um what is that kissing your no thing against sisters I don't bu t um but stop with the analogies there but but I do think um the idea that she was going to come zooming out of here and into New Hampshire happening and and the core ye ah that there's a wall around her she can win the areas around University of Iowa and Iowa State but pretty much nowhere else and so that that class divide is to me just the big story in American politics and she's on the wrong side of it Jonathan what stands out to you you know there was t going into the weekend that Nikk was resurgent especially after that um um there was a a poll that came out before that said you know she's resurgent she's she's she's going to she is going to come in number two but then the NBC News De Moine register Mediacom poll came out and there are a bunch of numbers in there that were huge red flags just about you know enthusias for her which was not really there but also when people were asked about their second choice and she wasn't she was th ird second choice of people and I kept asking the the the question of the people who came on my show yesterday could we see a situation where Ro STIs who everyone was counting as dead his campaign was dead could he come in second and now and now tonight it looks like at least from the numbers that Jeff told us earlier he is coming i but I go back to what Amy said I what is his pathway what is Nikki Haley's pathway in no matter who wins New Hampshire or South Carolina tonight shows us that officially officially again that the Republican party is Donald Trump's party and everyone else is just wasting their time if they think they're going to topple him and pi cking up on on Jonathan's Point returning to these AP uh voter su which uh they spoke they spoke to caucus goers to get a sense of who were they aved for and why caucus goers who identify as conservative 63% of those Donald Trump no surprise there but look at the photos who identify as modera 41% 44% excuse me they're also going for Donald Trump what I mean what's the takeaway there I think moderate voters th registering the economy as thei one issue in many cases even for them it's this they want to return to the Donald Trump economy that they be fore Joe Biden so modera even flocking to him I I think one of the other things and this is really probably the biggest threa Haley and and Ronda sanz's the air of inevitability that has now taken over with the with the Trump campaign um voters really want a winn and they also want somebody whose trend line is pointing in the right direction for many of these GOP base voters some of the more moderate ones that were sort of have held their no voted for Trump and were hoping someone would emerge now that they're someone that there's not a cons consolidation they're getting ready to the inevitability of trump as their nominee this actually points to a ve important uh another survey I wanted to to look at which is about the electability i to weigh in on this because the vast majority of Republican caucu Iowa said electability is one is sues right over 80% uh this was th message right she said if you are sick of losing vote for me that she po to all the past Republican elections in which they have lost the po time and time again among those wh o say it's very important for their nominee to win in Novemb majority broke for Donald Trump do es that say to you about uh well it is in the eye of the pe rhaps um but so many Republicans don't think there has they've been losing since uh Donald Trump lost in part because they don't believe that Donald Trump lost a big core of the Republican electorate but I think it speaks to something else too wh you know back in 2012 uh uh when I was working covering this campaign um and in 2008 with the John McCain campaign Republican primary voters were told you know you may not love everything about Mitt Romney he might be a little too establishment McCain may be a li establishment but look at the po they can win they're the only candidates that can win the these ones who've won Iowa they're too conservative they're not going to get independent voters guess what both of those candidat and so you have a whole genera Republican primary voters that say you when the elites tell us something's going to happen we're going to take the opposite position beca in 2020 to stick with Trump he won or 2016 he can do it again and uh but let's be clear the polls are very clear that Nick Nikki Haley is the most electable of that bunch I I think just real quick too I think electability for ba sed voter right now is driven by two factors the first is who can drive hardest Contra contrast against Joe and I think many of these voters believe that Donald Trump is the one t the second is who's going to strongest fighter against what receive to be as the perceiv of the left and the Biden Administration and again that happens to be Donald Trump you know on the one hand th outcome of this night does seem rational that Donald Trump has all the advantages of running as a deao incumbe there is part of this that is also surreal and irrational i the Republican front runner is facing 91 felony counts and and his candidacy could potentially collapse at any moment and then what would happen to the Republican nominating proc yeah and there's a significant not a huge chunk but there's a chunk of party who said the him if he was convicted significant chunk who do think he will be convicted and so that that op tion I just think people think he's just the strongest they just think we're under assault he's the strongest uh and he's got the working class and you know we spend too much time just thin about American politics around the world this is happening everywhere yeah Hungary it's happening in happening in India I mea around the world there's me n types who are projecting strength who often have corruption problems and people like it's a doggy dog world out there we need our we need this we need this Pitbull basically and so nothing will deter if you feel personally under assault and then you know I've been watching some of his rallies rece and he's a lot more um Meandering than he was in 2016 and a lot more repetitive kind of boring to me I I couldn't barely get through them and I'm paid to d this but he does do a good job of of a sense of we we're winning we're going to win we we we and so for a narcissist he's pretty good at at membership creating a sense of M can I put to you one other thing that I've noticed coming out of these results if we bring up t three-way results so far of um ha ve uh showing Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis and Miss Haley there look 1% is a very strong number right but here's the other argument is that that's close th e voters who did not say that wa nted him to be their nominee they wanted something other than Do is there a lane there Jonathan um I don't know I don't know and you know why I say that because I come back to another number in in the AP data that is startling 62% of those surveyed say that President Biden um was is not the legitimate President right how do H I'm trying to I'm trying to square that I re I really am because I mean is this 62% just peculiar to Iowa which is not representative of the country as a whole or is that a number that as we go from primary to primary to primary holds true and then what does that say not just about the Republican Party um th e country and the country's appetite for democracy Kevin if you were advi the disantis or the Haley campaigns what would you tell them to do toni uh boy that's a tough question for answer for both of them look I think Nikki Haley st the best chance I I think to disagree slightly with what David said earlier think she has managed Io wa well enough that she is go able to get some momentum out of this and her current standing I believe in New Hampshire probably serves her very well um she doesn't h she wanted out of this which was a surprise second place that but I think that's what you is that she I think she has the momentum sti to fight another day I think th that she's going to be able to send t her donors which i the candidate that probably represents the best chance to take Donald in a one-on-one uh contest for the nomination I still remain the best uh I still remain the best candidate to do that I think that's a compelli argument I think I thi fewer compelling arguments I think one of the most damning indictments of his campaign right now is that he started these campaigns and National polls anywhere in the 30 low 30s was in the high 20s $200 million later he's at 21% that's your candidacy so I think his biggest problem is going to be where is he going to find donors and then the enthusiasm to really fuel the infrastructure he needs in many these other primary States South Carolina Florida where he wants to sort co mpete next well to your point in itially promised that he Io wa you know and I mean a lot of these campaigns were about managing expectations and those w set by his campaign that he fa sort of to to meet and so I think it's a very very tough night for him on the question of electability t general election isn't Nikki Haley more electable candidate that she's facing Jo Biden of the t absolutely she's the only candidate right now of Dan santis and Haley who can win over those independent swing voters um what Trump can do is he's kept his base together he's kept the Trump Coalition together bu t the Trump Coalition its challenge has long been since 2016 there is a ceiling to that Coalition and this is what happened in 2016 he bumped up against that ceiling he won without 50% of the vote in those swing States because third parties drained enough the vote away so that he still could win without 50% 2020 didn't work out as well um even in the polling that's come out if you look at since in this year a recently Donald Trump's percent of the vote in those key swing States is basically where it was in 2020 ah ead of Biden but he's still basically where he was in 2020 and so he's not growing his base he can hope that he holds on to his base and that Biden loses gets drained by people who either stay home lack of enthu candidates I mean you know the polls better than I but what I saw of of recent polls Haley was like at 53 against Biden yeah Trump was like at 51 and then Satan was slightly back there wasn't big differences between the different candidates they they ki nd of beat Biden if it was ri but and so Haley's like slightly advanced haly was like it was pe rcentage she's at at a percenta is like significantly higher so if it's 46 to 53 versus like 47 to 49 you know what I mean like it's there's there's less of a um there's less of a gap uh Trump than there is with Haley but your point is a very good one because now if you're trying to convince the voters who may be on the fence oh it's big risk taking Trump on and you look at the polling it says Trump's ahead Trump's ahead Trump's ahead not talking about ceilings but just is he ahead of Biden and all th States yes is he ahead in some po lling in National polls yes or it's tied it's not like he's losing I think we've still got Lisa dejo down with us in Iowa she has been at a Ronda santz caucus night watch party Lisa if you're still there would love for you to weigh in on s conversation we' I'm asking I'm asking I believe she is uh doing some live reporting at the moment uh or maybe can hear USIS can you hear us inv Lisa are you still us well we are we are told that the Associated Press has has called second place for for Ronda santis oh okay so who wants to take that jump ball I was right I was right but that doesn't do him any good because as we were saying before he put all of his I'm repeating Amy Walter he put all of his eggs in the Iowa basket not just you know hey I want to win this state he moved to Iowa he's the governor of FL County he's the governor of Florida but he move but he moved to Iowa and and he come way short but um look if I were to danis campaign I would kind of be happy right now because going as again going into the weekend he was supposed to get trounced he was supposed to be th coming in number three I think we have Lisa Dej now with us now Lisa he ar us would' love for you to weigh in now we've heard officially tha Associated Press has said bronda has come in second in Iowa uh weigh in on what we've been talking about here about the future of campaign in particular that's that's right well you can tell they've begun bringing out the s this probably uh a few steps before we see Governor Dan santis speak uh but what I hear from this crowd what I hear from the podium right no celebration there's a little of that at being second but def this is a campaign and I know you brought this up when you the panel just now tha talk openly about the idea that this election was rigged against them by the media uh the speaker here Steve da he's a conservative talk show host in this that's well known in Iowa uh he just brought up the idea there you go uh that he he raised stop the steel and he clearly was making an illusion not just to 2020 but to tonight you kno is a campaign interestingly that this morning Ronda santz had behind him a large Banner that said no excuses ju results but I think we're going to hear them talk about the Associated Press in terms of their placement in this race now that said I hear what Da saying or I'm sorry Jonathan was talking about the idea that this actually may have been a better result uh than some expected for the disantis campaign I think when I see these results talking to voters here I think one thing you guys might be missing is that most of the people who voted for dantis and Haley a lot of them actually would probably either vote probably would consider Donald Trump to be honest there are a lot of Haley voters as never Trump but I did be the case a lot of them prefer her to Trump but then prefer Trump to Biden it's it's a tricky mix or they would not vote at all we're talking about D santis and Haley is what I'm getting at but really the margin is still so low larg if you're asking me the Dan santis campaign future yes there is a fu for them tonight you hear the Defiance you hear the anger but I'm more wondering about what this an ger means for a potential le Trump nominee or whoever is the nominee in the fall Lisa thank you om we were talking earlier about how this entire GOP Primary has been a bat attrition to see who would t Donald Trump right tonight that one more candid dropped out DEC ramaswami has ra ce there you go a tighter race we have time to get go around and get ever reaction what you just h as well David this idea that th e steel message and calling qu estion these results tonight has already begun to permeate this least from the disantis campaign what are you watching going forward an d resentment uh you know I th e media has been super supportive of Donald Trump so I don't going to be a good I'm I guess my big takeaway is this was a Mitt Romney party this was a John McCain party that was only in a bit and and this was a party that was a global or an internationalist party and the lesson of internationalism was America needs to be active abroad now Haley is getting slammed for that and the weird thing to me is the people who are with Trump on Amer old people so it's not like some new generation came it's old people who used to be internationalists with Reagan and McCain and Romney are now th at's remarkable Jonathan um I do think that the DeSantis folks have a legitimate gripe about the um from AP to David's Point folks had not even a lot of folks hadn't even voted yeah as early as it did at 8:3 p.m Eastern Eastern time but the I think the issue for Dan santis is that griping and whining will only take you so far you have got to give people a reason to vote for you and not complain about the media and talking about stop the steal yeah Kevin final thoughts well I'd that you know I think it Trump to benefit from the dueling strategies of his opponents uh and the fact that they cannot find a path towards consolidation and they can't find a way to take him on directly and instead they're taking each other on it's just to his benefit yeah Amy I absolutely agree to that this is this is Donald Trump's party I think Nikki Haley was running as the old party Ron was trying to be a new version of trump that didn't work very well one of the favorite quotes I got from a Repu strategist about that DeSantis strate was for voters who want Batman they want Batman they do not want Robin right and he was offering Robin and Haley is offering that old style republicanism that just is no longer in Vogue the first contest here is under our belt Kevin Amy Jonathan David thank you so much thanks also to our own Lisa de jardan out in the field this has been live special coverage of the 2024 Iowa caucuses and mark your calendars for the next round of votes there's mo have live special coverage of Ha mpshire Republican and Democr primaries on January 23rd and we invite you to join us again tomorrow for more analysis on the regularly scheduled newsour and follow us on social media for the very latest for all of us here at the newsour thank you for joinin and have a great night this program was 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