the Iowa caucuses and the official start# of the Republican nominating Fo r analysis, we're joined by Amy Walter of# The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter,## Tamara Keith of NPR, and Kay Henderson of Radio# Iowa and Iowa PBS.

Kay is in Des Moines tonight.

And, Kay, we will start with you.

What has this final da been the impact so far of the snow and# these bone-chilling temperat KAY HENDERSON, News Director, Radio# Iowa: Well, that is the big question,## because the caucuses begin# in jus and we don't yet know whether it will be# a determining factor in dampen I did talk to some Republican Party# officials today, and they expect## turnout to still be robust, primarily# because of the organizing that's been## going on, on the ground by the Trump# campaign and the DeSantis campaign,## and perhaps these late deciders who are# jumping on the Nikki Haley bandwagon.

There was a Des Moines Register/NBC# News poll that came out this weekend,## and it showed she was now in second place# among likely caucus-goers.

The question is## just if those likely caucus-goers are# going to actually become caucus-goers.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Amy, that poll that Kay# mentioned, that raised a lot of eyebrows,## because, as she mentioned, Nikki Haley# is now -- at least according to the poll,## was second to Trump, but above DeSantis.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political# Report: That's right.

AMY WALTER: Well, Kay's exactly# always mean definitely going to show up,# especial And, in fact, the one thing that really# popped in that poll, when they asked voters,## how enthusiastic are you about# your candidate, not surprising,## 49 percent of Trump voters say, I'm very# enthusiastic; 23 percent of DeSantis## voters say that.

For Haley voters, only 9# percent said they're extremely enthusiastic.

Now, a vote's a vote, whether it's enthusiastic# or not.

But, usually, the more enthusiastic you## are about your candidate, the more likely# you're going to want to brave that weather.## And Kay also made a point too that, when it comes# to organizing, the Trump campaign was there early## and has really -- much different than, say, in# 2016, is much better organized on the ground.

And the DeSantis campaign and his super PAC# have spent months and millions of dollars## organizing there.

So, when it comes to the# who's going to get the people out piece,## sometimes, having that organization is going to## be the difference between a few points# on one end of the final nu GEOFF BENNETT: Right.

campaign infrastructure is something entirely# different.

Do traditional models of campaigning,## especially for Republicans, does it even matter?# Does it have the same utility in the Trump era?

TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: You know, in# 2016, former President -- or -- former President## Trump, he campaigned in Iowa by bringing a# helicopter to the Iowa State Fair.

He d follow the rules of Iowa.

And he came in second.# And he became president of the United States.

And## he has only gotten more popular with base# voters and with Iowa voters since then.

But his campaign, as Kay said, has built# an organization.

They are doing the ground## game thing.

All of these rallies# that he's been having aren't just## called rallies.

They're called commit# to caucus events.

They have ha videos up on the screen showing people# how to caucus, imploring them to caucu And you saw him out there saying, like, even# if you're dying, go caucus before you die,## this is that important,which is# to say, he is playing the game,## even though he is this dominant force, in part# because his campaign knows that they need him## to dominate the caucuses.

They need him to# dominate these early primaries and caucuses,## so that the race is basically over before# his court issues become even bigger issues.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Kay,# Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds,## who's backing Ron DeSantis, she She said: "I think it's going to# be bad for President Trump if he## doesn't come in over 50.

He's not# meeting expectat and the polls have been putting# out for the past several months."

It's clear why she's doing that.# She's in the DeSantis ca does she have a point?

Is there a# bar that D KAY HENDERSON: Well, we could# go back to the last century,## and Bob Dole won these# caucuses by 12 or 13 But the Trump campaign, I think, is aiming for# something obviously a little bit more generous## than that.

The polls show that his lead was# 28 percent.

But, obviously, the governor is## trying to make the case that, if he doesn't have# the support of a little more than a plurality,## at least half of Iowa Republicans, what kind of# signal does that send to the rest of the country,## that maybe Iowa Republicans were open to a# different kind of candidate than Donald Trump?

And that should send a message, she argues,## to the rest of the country that, take# GE OFF BENNETT: What about Nikki Haley and# Ron DeSantis?

How strong of a showing do## they have to put up tonight to# justify staying in the race?

AMY WALTER: Right.

the infrastructure, he has the endorsements,# not coming in second place would really just## be a death knell to his campaign, very hard# for him to make the case that he should go on.

Now, look, if he comes in a close second,# and this is -- and it is a lot closer than,## say, the polls suggest it will be, then# he can make the case that, you know what,## it should be the two of us going one-on-one,# rather than Nikki Haley versus Donald Trump.

For Nikki Haley, a close third is enough, I think,## of a story because we know she's polling so# well in New Hampshire.

Reme even DeSantis is not polling very well in New# Hampshire.

He's not spending any money in New## Hampshire.

He's not polling very well in South# Carolina either, which is the next state up.

GEOFF BENNETT: Right.

GEOFF BENNETT: We will talk about that later.

AMY WALTER: Yes, that's a whole other problem.

TAMARA KEITH: We got tim (LAUGHTER) GEOFF BENNETT: Well, the Republicans# have spent $123 million just in ads## alone in Iowa.

What do the numbers# tell us when you dig deep, Tam?

TAMARA KEITH: Well, what really stands out# to me is that Ron DeSantis is th bet it all on Iowa, who's been competing# hard, who's basically moved to the state.

But in terms of ad spending, him -- Ron DeSantis# and his super PACs have not spent the most money## in Iowa.

In fact, Nikki Haley and her super# PAC have spent more, like $2 million more,## but, still, they have spent more than Ron# DeSantis.

And a lot of that has come in## the last couple of months as she has surged and# basically got more money throug And then Trump has spent about $18 million.

So# Haley spent 37 and her super PACs, DeSantis 35,## Trump at 18.

But he can just have a# rally and 1,000 people will show up,## while Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, mostly Ron# DeSantis, are going county by county by county,## the Machine Shed and Pizza Ranch, and# they're getting 150 people at a time.

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes.

Yes.

KAY HENDERSON: Results in Dubuque County.

That's# a county that Trump barely won last time around in# 2016.

And DeSantis and Haley have both spent# a lot of time there over the past few weeks.

I will be looking at Linn County, the Cedar# Rapids area.

Donald Trump finished third there.## Both of the DeSantis and Haley campaigns# have spent a lot of time there.

And then,## if you look back at 2022, Kim Reynolds'# victory as Iowa governor was really## fueled by just an overwhelming# majority of wins in rural Iowa.

Those are areas that Ted Cruz did well in,# in 2016.

So, if Donald Trump starts rolling## up numbers early in some of the small counties,# that would be a good sign for the Trump campaign.

GEOFF BENNETT: Thank you all.

Great conversation.

Kay Henderson, Tamara AMY WALTER: Thank you.

TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.