GEOF The 2024 presidential AMNA NAWAZ: Some Republicans are enduring frigid weather to participate in the caucuses.

Lisa Desjardins is the LISA DESJARDINS: We're in Western Warren.

This is one of over 700 caucus sites around the state, t dropping.

Now, Iowans a caucus like this.

This is not normal.

The 2024 Iowa caucuses probably won' for this, a weeklong arctic blast with record-setting snowfall, powerful gusts and windchill readings in the 40s below zero.

It all choked campaigns to a near-halt at one point, and when candidates th e storm still took center stage.

DONALD TRUMP, Former President of the U When everyon GOV.

RON DESANTIS voice heard NIKKI HALEY I will tell you, you all are taking it to a whole new level.

LISA DESJARDINS: And the weather is just one piece of an extra weird elec DONALD TRUMP: We're in Iowa.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) LISA DESJARDINS: O roughly 30 points.

DONALD TRUMP: Ask yourselv more, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSanctimonious, or President Donald J. Trump?

I can tell you right now... LISA DESJARDINS: It's not only one question, Trump or, as his two main opponents argue, not Trump.

GOV.

RON DESANTIS issues, criminal trials.

NIKKI HALEY: I agree with a lot of his But rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him.

You know I'm right.

Chaos follows him.

(APPLAUSE) LISA DESJARD DON BUHROW, Donald Trump Supporter: The I have been a Trump supporter DE NISE NELSON, Donald Trump Supporter: He is a man that stands behind his word.

He will get the job done.

VALERIE SUTT I really do.

He's still the l He is, in my opi LISA DESJARDINS: Working mom Valerie Sutton means that.

She's the latest generation to run her family's over-100-year-old greenhou Trump's America first push, to her, made the world safer and the American economy stronger.

Sutton sees his main challengers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N.

Ambassador Nikki Haley, falling short.

VALERIE SUTTON: What I think about Ni And that is another thing that I really like about Trump, is that he's a businessman, and I think that the government needs to be run like a business.

LISA DESJARDINS: Her business is in Dallas County, critical territo suburbs meet some of rural Central Iowa.

One of the fastest growing places in the country, Trump won the 2016 general elec 10 points.

But in 2020, his margi It's a national harbinger.

And if either DeSantis or Haley has an like Dallas.

DENNIS MANDS LISA DESJARDINS: And that's an d his wife, Sherrie, a retired teacher, both Republicans for Haley.

DENNIS MANDSAGER: Well, the first thing that really caught my attention was her position Ukraine.

I'm deeply concerned about that confli Ukraine.

SHERRIE MAND more liberal than our governor's.

Sherrie and Dennis each voted for President Trump in 2020 and they know he le GOP race now.

SHERRIE MANDSAGER: I w I would go with a third-party candidate versus An d I would never vote for Biden.

LISA DESJARDINS: Why a SH ERRIE MANDSAGER: I don't like his attitude of h He's always calling people names.

And, as a teacher, you teach yo LISA DESJARDINS: In Iowa, even supporters of his opponents ask about Trump.

CHRIS GARCIA, Ron DeSantis Supporter: Why haven't you gone directly after him?

GOV.

RON DESANTIS LISA DESJARDINS: That's wh o's lived in and around Dallas County his whole life and plans to caucus for DeSantis.

CHRIS GARCIA: He united Florida, and he did a good job of it.

But you know what he does?

He does what he tells he LISA DESJARDINS: Garcia voted for President Tr if he wins the nomination, but he has reservations.

CHRIS GARCIA: He says some things that I don't know whe I think he talks out of the side of his mouth before he realizes what he says.

LISA DESJARDINS: It's DeSantis who essentially bet it all in Iowa, both in time and money, a bet that's paid off in some cases.

TIM GORRE, Ron DeSantis Supporter: The -- so it's kind of like they made this effort to call on me.

And I talked to them.

And I told them I would give LI SA DESJARDINS: But it is Haley who has rise MARK JORGENSEN, Nikki Haley Supporter: I have been a Trump guy.

And if he wasn't so divisive, I'd be a Trump guy again.

But Nikki Haley's got similar thoughts.

LISA DESJARDINS: And also from some never LYNH PATTERSON, Nikki Haley Supporter: I'm actually a Democrat that changed my registration to be Republican, so I can caucus for her.

LISA DESJARDINS: That is the strange political landscape of Iowa and 2024 hustling to shake as many hands as possible, but who still can't match the draw of a single Trump event.

Kelley Koch chairs Dallas County's GOP KELLEY KOCH, Chairs, Dallas County, Iowa, Republican Party: GOP Initially, I think a lot of people were naive that the MAGA grip way.

As we march closer to caucus, And then one by one, you see these candidates not polling, not getting traction.

And they leave, and I think they underestimated the MAGA grip.

LISA DESJARDINS: Iowa likes surprises, Huckabee in 2008, Santorum in 2012.

But this year, the weather has shocked, with Trump clearly aware of turnout risks.

DONALD TRUMP: You can't sit home.

If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, I have got Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember?

(LAUGHTER) DONALD TRUMP CHRIS SIEDLIK, Donald Trump supporter: I'm thinking about You know, it just depends So, I'm going to see, wait and see.

LISA DESJARDINS: Millions of dollars in a year o Iowa that could determine if Republicans have a real race for president.

Now if the temperature drops just a few more degrees, this will in fact be the coldest Iowa caucuses on record -- Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: Lisa, the big question expectations.

What's your LISA DESJARDINS: W He's counting on that to get his voters out.

But I will tell you, when I have gone to his even I have been to places where really they were handing out yard signs and people weren't picking them up.

So it is a real te Nikki Haley, in contrast, has the smallest operation Things have been turning her way.

The question is whether she has enough p She's been asking members of Congress, for been reporting, around here.

President Trump, he's counting on But one thing he needs to watch out for is that he is more at risk for a factor that affects rural voters.

They are more like perhaps, of going out in the cold weather.

One other factor that could affect eve Would you rather go out in this cold or watch a football game tonigh One more thing, Amna, that I think I can't overstate, there is a real sense of almost in Iowa now.

We have rarely seen any yard sign And I talked to one voter who said there's a thickness in the air, a sense of deja vu, no matter who you support, that they're going over the same fights again and again, not really as much excitement as I have seen in the past.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, Lisa, we know there are 99 counties We know our audience can also follow along as those results come in tonight.

If you were them, what are some good counties to zero in on and track?

LISA DESJARDINS: Oh, I love talking about the county-by-county map.

Let's start over west, one of my favorites, Pottawattamie County.

This is a rural county.

Donald Trump had a big night He lost the state overall to Ted Cruz in the caucuses got to have a big night there tonight.

I'd watch that early to kind of Te d -- Ron DeSantis was there today, though, thinking perhaps he can make up ground in that conservative area.

Let us go east t Those are counties that were very close between Dona Marco Rubio also did well there.

Those are places where, if someone breaks River counties on the east.

And then, right where I am, ri also Dallas County.

These are th If Nikki Haley is going to have a big So stay tuned.

AMNA NAWAZ: All Lisa, thank you.

We will be c And you can follow the live caucus results on our Web site and during our specia later tonight right here on PBS.